This year’s race certainly has proven that it’s got some cards up it’s sleeve as this mornings nominations shook things up, particularly in the directing department. There were snubs and surprises across the board but what else can you expect from the Academy? I’ll be filling you in on where my predictions lay and the percentage I actually managed to predict. Follow along to find out these year’s nominee and who missed out.

Best Picture

• Amour
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
•  Les Misérables
• Life of Pi 
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty 

Prediction Percentage: 9/9, 100% (with 10 nominees predicted)

The Shockers: This category was the only one that went pretty much according to plan. I had all nine of these contenders as my picks but also thought that Moonrise Kingdom may have filled that coveted tenth slot. Seems like there was little love for Wes Anderson’s latest though and the Academy went only with nine this year. As far as my predictions, I was looking pretty spot on.

Best Director

• Michael Haneke “Amour”
• Benh Zeitlin “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
• Ang Lee “Life of Pi”
• Steven Spielberg “Lincoln”
• David O. Russell “Silver Linings Playbook” 

Prediction Percentage: 1/5, 20%  

The Shockers: This one is a doozy. Ask any Oscar pundit and they’ll tell you that this year’s Best Director category was straight out of left field. Now that’s not saying that anyone thinks the nominated directors are unworthy of the title, there were just more high profile directors who have been to have that position locked throughout the year.

The big names missing out are Ben Affleck, for Argo, and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, as they both felt like locks going into this morning. Hooper and Tarantino managed to stay on the sidelines as well, which isn’t shocking but most would assume that without Affleck and Bigelow, these boys might have been able to slip through.

My best guess for what went down is too many people assumed clear nominations for Bigelow and Affleck and went with their fringe favorites. It’s all pretty, in a word, shocking.

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Daniel Day-Lewis “Lincoln”
• Hugh Jackman “Les Misérables”
• Joaquin Phoenix “The Master”
• Denzel Washington “Flight”

Prediction Percentage: 4/5, 80% 

The Shockers: No big shockers in this category, in fact I said that if anyone was gonna grab that spot away it would have been Phoenix but the wind had seemed to have gone out of The Master‘s hair. Apparently it had not though. Only one missing out here in John Hawkes who plays a paraplegic virgin in The Sessions.

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Jennifer Lawrence  “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Emmanuelle Riva  “Amour”
• Quvenzhané Wallis “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
• Naomi Watts  “The Impossible”

Prediction Percentage: 4/5, 80%

The Shockers: Again this category didn’t offer many shockers and I’m not at all surprised that Naomi Watts claimed a spot. This category was always a six woman race and someone had to miss out, unfortunately for Marion Cotillard.

Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin “Argo”
• Robert De Niro “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Philip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”
• Tommy Lee Jones  “Lincoln”
• Christoph Waltz “Django Unchained”

Prediction Percentage: 4/5, 80%

The Shockers: I’m starting to see a trend with my predictions and while four for five isn’t bad at all, it’d be nice to have the perfect category. I’m slightly surprised to see Waltz nabbing that last spot because most positioning had Leo leading him and with Javier Bardem circling that last slot as well, I thought Waltz had missed out. Very happy to report that he indeed did not, if you remember from my Django review, Waltz’s performance was one of my favorites of the year.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams “The Master”
• Sally Field “Lincoln”
• Anne Hathaway “Les Misérables”
• Helen Hunt “The Sessions”
• Jacki Weaver “Silver Linings Playbook”

Prediction Percentage: 4/5, 80%

The Shockers: Again, I went four for five here and the choice of Weaver is a fair one to have missed out on. I had Ann Down “Compliance” for that last slot but was very sketchy on her to say the least. I loved Silver Linings Playbook though so the more nominees it garnishes, the better. 

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That’s it for the major categories and my predictions.

For anyone keeping score my total aggregate prediction percentage ends up being: 26/34, 76%
If it weren’t for that kooky directors dodge, it would have look even prettier.

For the technical categories check below. All that I will say about those is Christoph Nolan’s The Dark Knight Rises managed to snag a crisp zero nominations. Now that’s some hardcore backlash. Ouch.

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Best Animated Film
“Brave” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
“Frankenweenie” Tim Burton
“ParaNorman” Sam Fell and Chris Butler
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits” Peter Lord
“Wreck-It Ralph” Rich Moore

Achievement in Cinematography
“Anna Karenina” Seamus McGarvey
“Django Unchained” Robert Richardson
“Life of Pi” Claudio Miranda
“Lincoln” Janusz Kaminski
“Skyfall” Roger Deakins

Achievement in Costume Design
“Anna Karenina” Jacqueline Durran
“Les Misérables” Paco Delgado
“Lincoln” Joanna Johnston
“Mirror Mirror” Eiko Ishioka
“Snow White and the Huntsman” Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary
“5 Broken Cameras”
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
“The Gatekeepers”
Nominees to be determined
“How to Survive a Plague”
Nominees to be determined
“The Invisible War”
Nominees to be determined
“Searching for Sugar Man”
Nominees to be determined

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Inocente”
Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
“Kings Point”
Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
“Mondays at Racine”
Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
“Open Heart”
Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
“Redemption”
Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

Achievement in Film Editing
“Argo” William Goldenberg
“Life of Pi” Tim Squyres
“Lincoln” Michael Kahn
“Silver Linings Playbook” Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
“Zero Dark Thirty” Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour” Austria
“Kon-Tiki” Norway
“No” Chile
“A Royal Affair” Denmark
“War Witch” Canada

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
“Hitchcock”
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
“Les Misérables”
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Original score
“Anna Karenina” Dario Marianelli
“Argo” Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi” Mychael Danna
“Lincoln” John Williams
“Skyfall” Thomas Newman

Original song
“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Achievement in Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
“Les Misérables”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
“Life of Pi”
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Lincoln”
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best Animated Short Film
“Adam and Dog” Minkyu Lee
“Fresh Guacamole” PES
“Head over Heels” Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
“Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”” David Silverman
“Paperman” John Kahrs

Best Live Action Short Film
“Asad” Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
“Buzkashi Boys” Sam French and Ariel Nasr
“Curfew” Shawn Christensen
“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)” Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
“Henry” Yan England

Achievement in Sound Editing
“Argo” Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
“Django Unchained” Wylie Stateman
“Life of Pi” Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
“Skyfall” Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
“Zero Dark Thirty” Paul N.J. Ottosson

Achievement in Sound Mixing
“Argo”
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
“Les Misérables”
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
“Life of Pi”
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
“Lincoln”
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
“Skyfall”
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Achievement in Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
“Life of Pi”
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
“Prometheus”
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Adapted Screenplay
“Argo” Screenplay by Chris Terrio
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
“Life of Pi” Screenplay by David Magee
“Lincoln” Screenplay by Tony Kushner
“Silver Linings Playbook” Screenplay by David O. Russell

Original Screenplay
“Amour” Written by Michael Haneke
“Django Unchained” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“Flight” Written by John Gatins
“Moonrise Kingdom” Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
“Zero Dark Thirty” Written by Mark Boal

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The Oscars aren’t a precise science, they’re more speculation and guesswork- an aggregate of maybes based on a huge number of variables. But they’re fun to mess around with and try your hand at so these are my best bets for who we can expect to be nabbing noms come Thursday morning.

Best Picture:

• Argo
• Amour
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Lincoln
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Silver Lining Playbook
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Zero Dark Thirty

This year has some strong Oscar contenders, the real name of the game is guessing just how many will make the cut. Since it’s such a diverse year with wins heading all over the place, I went with the maximum 10. Is this a safe bet? No. It’ll probably end up being eight or nine but I guarantee those eight or nine will include these features.

Best Director:

• Steven Spielberg “Lincoln”
• Kathryn Bigelow”Zero Dark Thirty”
• Ben Affleck “Argo”
• Ang Lee “Life of Pi”
• Quentin Tarantino “Django Unchained”

I feel like it’s a lock for Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck with Lee, Tarantino, O’Russell and Hooper battling over the last two spots. I’m going to go with Lee because he’s an old favorite amongst the industry and Hooper already won a few years back. I’m going with Tarantino because he deserves it and hopefully the academy recognizes that too. But you can pretty much can guarantee that it goes to O’Russell or Hooper over Tarantino…but I can dream.

Best Actor:

• Daniel Day Lewis “Lincoln”
• Hugh Jackman “Les Miserables”
• Bradley Cooper “Silver Linings Playbook”
• John Hawkes “The Sessions”
• Denzel Washington”Flight”

I feel like Joaquin Phoenix deserved a position here but it has been a very competitive year for lead actors. If I had my play, I’d swap him out for Hugh Jackman, who I didn’t love in Les Miserables.

Best Actress:

• Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”
• Jennifer Lawerence”Silver Linings Playbook”
• Marion Cotillard”Rust and Bone”
• Quvenzhane Wallis “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
• Emmanuelle Riva “Amour”

These leading ladies all seem like locks but Naomi Watts is a really serious contender as well. If anyone’s going to grab a spot it’ll be her. When it comes to February though the battle is really between Chastain and Lawerence. On a side note, Wallis may just be one of the youngest Oscar contenders of all time at a mere nine years old.

Best Supporting Actor:

• Alan Arkin “Argo”
• Phillip Seymore Hoffman”The Master”
• Tommy Lee Jones “Lincoln”
• Robert De Niro “Silver Linings Playbook”
• Leonardo DiCaprio “Django Unchained”

We have four locks with Arkin, Hoffman, Jones and De Niro but that fifth slot could go five ways. I’m going to go with DiCaprio even though I would personally give it to Christoph Waltz. Matt McConaughey (“Magic Mike”) and Javier Bardem (“Skyfall”) are sitting in the wings as well for this one.

Best Supporting Actress:

• Anne Hathaway “Les Miserables”
• Sally Field “Lincoln”
• Helen Hunt “The Sessions”
• Amy Adams “The Master”
• Ann Dowd “Compliance”

This is the field I know the least about but feel the most sure of. Anne Hathaway is going to take it in the end, the only question is who will she be beating out come February? I’m sure Field will be included as will Hunt. Adams is pretty much a lock too leaving me with Ann Dowd from “Compliance,” a film I’ve yet to see but am anticipating. On the outskirts we have Jacki Weaver, Nicole Kidman, Maggie Smith and Samantha Barks.

Bringing our tally for these major award nominations to:

• Lincoln, 5
• Silver Linings Playbook, 4
• Zero Dark Thirty, 3
• Argo, 3
• Les Miserables, 3
• Django Unchained, 3
• The Sessions, 2
• Amour, 2
• Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2
• Life of Pi, 2
• The Master, 2
• Compliance, 1
• Rust and Bone, 1
• Flight, 1 

Check it periodically for more updates on the Award season and look for my Oscar predictions come February. 

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