Who deserves to win doesn’t always line up with who does win so take a look at where the Oscars are gonna end up and where they actually should be heading.

(Note: This is not my final ballot, I still need to do some equivocating and fill in my dashes so expect that final submission tomorrow evening.)

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Argo

Argo has got the proverbial wing beneath it’s said and it’s outright hoarding of all the precursor awards are sure to lead to an Argonian victory speech next Sunday. With the DGAs, PGAs, BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, SAGs and WGAs under its belt, it’s hard to imagine a world where Argo does not win Best Picture.

Who Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Although Django Unchained was technically my favorite of the year, I don’t think it should be the picture that gets Quentin Tarantino his first, and likely only, win. No, this year’s winner should be Silver Linings Playbook. Although detractors of the film attack it with labels of ‘levity’ and ‘rom-com’, it really isn’t either of those things to any degree. Silver Linings Playbook managed a miraculously real exploration of romance amid catastrophe with sensitive navigation. It’s a remarkably emotional film and to degrade it with the label of rom-com is akin to calling Argo a mindless actioner.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Ang Lee

This is definitely the trickiest category going this year. The only person with any real momentum here is Affleck and he’s ineligible for the win. While I want to say that Steven Spielberg is the safe bet, here is little to no empirical evidence that suggest that he is indeed the front runner. In fact, outside of a slew of nominations, Spielberg has received little fanfare on the accolades side for his turn behind the camera, critical acclaim notwithstanding. Plus, he’s a safe vote and we’ve yet to see if the Academy will try and be more forward-looking and less passe this time around. Ang Lee seems a likely mantle holder for front runner but that would probably be more of a legacy win than for representing Life of Pi as his finest work. Since Life of Pi is easily the biggest moneymaker worldwide, why not seem relevant and present him the prize. I’m going out on a limb here but I just can’t help but put Lee at number one.

Who Should Win: David O’Russell

 

Returning to my sentiments on Silver Linings Playbook, it was undeniably David O’Russell‘s tender hand that made the film work as effectively as it did. If handled with less sensitivity and deliberate execution, it easily could have fallen victim to the pitfalls of melodrama, a feat which he and his talented cast alone can take credit for. O’Russell has proved of late that he has a noxious ability to direct actors into award-winning roles so it’s about time for him to get his cred.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis

No-one will deny Daniel Day Lewis‘s craft and his uncanny transformative ability. He managed to continue his victory streak of excellent thesbianism and his portrayal of the 16th President of the United States will be sure to gain him his third, and record setting, win for Best Actor.

Who Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis

The reason DDL is so strong in this category is all due to the fact that he didn’t just bring a stoic icon to life, he did it in a deeply personal and curiously tender way, presenting a side of Lincoln no-one saw coming. Lewis’ master class in method acting allowed us to hang with the long deceased president for a few hours and he deserves to be presented with his third lil’ gold guy. The strongest contender in this category from where I’m standing is Joaquin Phoenix. Phoenix displayed an equally fine-tuned character on the other side of the human condition and played unhinged and animalistic in his mannerisms and gestures alike. It’s too bad that The Master wasn’t a finer film in which to showcase Phoenix’s acting prowess.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

This category isn’t a total lock but Jennifer Lawrence definitely is the front runner here. Although she hasn’t snagged all the precursors, which are usually a strong means of prediction, she is certainly still considered to be leading her category by most Oscar pundits. There is still a good chance that Jessica Chastain ends up with the win or a split vote between Lawrence and Chastain opens up an avenue for underdog Emmanuelle Riva to sneak in.

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Lawrence put on an admirably scatter-shot performance as Tiffany in Silver Linings Playbook, fluctuating between being guarded and psychotic, irrational and acute, sharp and girlish, always with shocking honesty. Her portrait felt real and truly fleshed out and genuine. For some, it would be the performance of their life but I expect Lawrence has more up her sleeve. Tiffany was not the cheap, surface caricature that she might have been, this was a well studied and meaningful performance and although Lawrence is young, she deserves the win here.

Best Support Actress

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway‘s literally breathtaking rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” delivered with so much teary-eyed panache that it became the forefront of the Les Miserables marketing campaign. Every trailer was branded with this harrowing tune to the point that anyone who watches television or goes to the movies are sure to be familiar with the majority of it regardless of whether they’ve actually seen the film. Even those who missed it will be sure to recognize a closely shaven Hathway belting out in agony and that public presence alone is enough to run her to the forefront. There’s a reason the marketing blitz started and stopped with Hathaway, she was the uncontested highlight of Les Misand her cry-singing (or is it sing-crying?) will most certainly be winning her her first Oscar

Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway

As much as I’ve had my reservations about the ceaselessly perky Hathaway in the past, her dueling fare from the year has all but won me over. Her bit in Les Miserables was a shining beacon of hope in an otherwise tiresome film and proved her potent dramatic gravitas. On the opposite side of the spectrum, she nicely balanced out that intensity with an unforgettable turn as a sassy, no-BS Catwoman (actually Selina Kyle) in Christopher Nolan‘s final Batman outing, earning her the title of this year’s Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: ?

This year’s best supporting actor field is really anyone’s race, with the possible exception of Alan Arkin. You may as well flip a four sided coin and go with the result because a good argument could be made for any of these contenders. At different points of the year, I’ve had my money on Phillip Seymour Hoffman then Tommy Lee Jones then Robert DeNiro and finally Christoph Waltz. Now I’m scrambling to make a final call as this field is truly a toss up that even the finest of prognosticators will be sure to miss out on.

Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Well obviously I’m going with Waltz. I gave his performance in Django Unchaineda glowing reviewing when it came out and I stick wholeheartedly to it. Waltz may have won Best Supporting Actor just a few years back under the Tarantino flag and sporting similar diction and cadence but that doesn’t detract from his truly phenomenal performance here. Although there are notable similarities, the contrast in character really couldn’t be starker. His prior win was for a hypnotic villain who made your belly turn and your face cringe while a win here would be for a hero that you helplessly stood behind and cheered for the whole way along. Is that enough of a difference for the Academy though? We shall see if they can distinguish the different between capitalizing and selflessness, villainy and heroics.

Cinematography 

Who Will Win: Life of Pi

At this point, I’m essentially relegating all the technicals Life of Pi‘s way because of the overwhelming support for the film both critically and commercially. Basically I expect Pi to play out much like this year’s Inception in the sense that it’ll probably tie for the top number of wins, albeit those coming strictly from tech categories. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on the wrong end of an argument debating the deservedness of the Life of Pi win but it just wasn’t a film that engaged me on a level deeper than the visual plus DP Claudio Mirandareally doesn’t have the filmography beneath his belt to outright deserve a win.

Who Should Win: Roger Deakins

Roger Deakins has been responsible for some of the most breathtaking and lively cinematography this side of Hollywood and his painterly photography of Skyfall was undeniably inspired. His scenery, lighting, camera motion decisions and framing decisions make it the most visually stunning Bond we’ve seen yet. It’s rare that a cinematogrpaher stands out as much as Deakins did here especially within the context of a massive blockbuster. I’m not ready to commit to necessarily calling this his finest work (as he’s competing against himself there with No Country For Old Men, True Grit, Shawshank Redemption, The Big Lebowski and Jarhead) but it certainly stands amongst his finest. Deakins has been nominated ten times and still has never won. It’s about time.

Editing

Who Will Win: Argo

Historically, editing has always been a category that goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture and don’t expect that to change this year as it will more than likely be headed Argo‘s way. While this trend unfortunately takes the fun out of the category, it also leaves it ripe for a shocker like last year’s surprising victory for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Whether you applaud Mark Boal‘s script or the editor here is up to you but there’s no denying the feat that is condensing a nine year historical manhunt into a movie that runs under three hours. This was the chief achievement of Zero Dark Thirty. Though some knocked it for being dull, the sense of hyper realism was propelled by the editors cautious cutting choices. Every choice seems deliberate and substantial, a necessary path to our final understand of the character at the forefront.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Brave

This year’s Best Animated Feature race is more lively than normal with a host of viable contenders. While the odds are still out, films like Frankenweenie and Paranorman still stand a chance but more than likely will cancel each other out because of their similar subject material (reanimation) and medium (stop-motion). This will most likely propel Brave to the victory and this is really a shame. Pixar was on such a winning streak up until the credits rolled out on Toy Story 3 and since have seemed to go cold. Bravewas very derivative fare that fell into sentimentality and mindless plot points. Brand recognition however goes a long way and the fact that Pixar missed out last year more than likely means that they’ll be taking the win even after phoning it in. Plus, the mother-and-daughter-finally-understanding-each-other resolution is much more in line with Academy sensibility than the genre blenders that fill out the rest of the field.

Who Should Win: Wreck it Ralph 

Wreck it Ralph was a genuinely from-the-heart story laid out on a stunning and inventive visual canvas that managed to excite both nostalgia and wonder. Many people confused it for a Pixar film and with good reason, because it, like what Pixar used to represent, was actually great. Ralph should win to change the narrative and prove that the increasingly worthwhile Dreamworks Animation Studio may just have inherited the mantle from Pixar.

Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Life of Pi

Again, look at the Inception ticket to get a good read here. It took both Sound Editing and Mixing, Cinematography and Visual Effects, the likely route for Life of Pi minus sound mixing which will go to Les Miserables. There’s nothing to knock Ang Lee’s beautifully made Life of Pi for, it’s elegant use of 3D technology and dreamlike landscapes were most definitely the standouts of the film and I won’t be booing when it takes the win, which trust me, it will.

 Who Should Win: The Avengers

Say what you will about the Marvel mashup but there’s no denying the visual mastery taking place on screen in The Avengers. Maybe it’s just the inner geek in me speaking up but the final climax in Avengers was truly a one-of-a-kind spectacle. Sure, it’s eye candy but it was goddamn delicious. The fact that Marvel stipulated that final sequence before they were had a story is no surprise, it’s the breathtaking centerfold to their already massively scoped blockbuster and it delivered more geekgasms than the world could have ever expected.

As we gather up our chips, roll the dice and make a gamble for the Oscar night that is nearly upon us, I take a look at four potential narratives that may be the story of this year’s Oscars.

At this point in the game, there are up to four narratives that could be potentially written about this year’s Oscar ceremony, making the role of prognosticator particularly challenging this season. The likely scenario will entail a split between the major categories with awards going every which way. While an unexpected sweep from a pair of heavy contenders is unlikely, it is still entirely possible. Finally, a few underdogs may just creep up and take advantage of the hefty competition and secure themselves as 2013’s top dogs.

The most likely scenario is a split, where Argo takes a choice grab of major awards (Best Picture, Editing, Adapted Screenplay), Lincoln snags a few big ones (Director, Actor, Production Design) and Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook split the rest of the main fare with the an abundance of the technical categories heading Pi’s way and Silver Linings Playbook scooping up some acting cred with Robert DeNiro for Best Supporting Actor and Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress and potentially, however unlikely, even grabbing Adapted Screenplay away from Argo. All that’s left is Quentin Tarantino‘s Django Unchained which would pick up Original Screenplay and potentially that second Best Supporting Actor for Christoph Waltz.

This is the likely scenario but since it’s a year in flux, we have to consider alternative situations. We have to consider the upset. Now hear me out on this because it could go one of two ways: the Lincoln road or the Silver Linings route. Although Argo seems to have Best Picture on lock-down, Affleck‘s lack of a nomination is still troubling statistically since films just don’t win Best Pic without even having their director nominated. In fact, most years Best Director and Best Picture come nicely packaged together with a pair of wins. Although unlikely, this is still a possibility we could still see this year with either Lincoln or Silver Linings.

We know that Oscar-hoarding mastermind Harvey Weinstein is standing firmly behind Silver Linings Playbook and has been greasing the Academy’s wheel so if we hear David O’Russell‘s name called for the highest directorial honor, the big win for Silver Linings might just not be out of the question. Lincoln has made a similarly strong push and certainly appeals to the whole backwards-looking factions of the Academy so it wouldn’t be out of character for them to ignore the precursors and just hand it all over to Steven Spielberg and his well made biopic. While either of these situations wouldn’t quite classify as your out-and-out sweep, they certainly would represent a staggering victory for either film. Since both these two are Argo’s biggest contendors, don’t count out that this could be the way the cookie crumbles quite yet.

The final scenario is even less likely and involves Michael Haneke‘s Amour taking home the bulk of Oscar gold. Even if Amour loses Best Pic to Argo, it still has Best Foreign Language Film locked down and if it managed to also pull Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and perhaps even an upset by Emmanuelle Riva, be certain that Amour will be the hot talking point going forward. No-one ever see the small ones coming but it’s happened before, think Slumdog Millionaire, and with such a divided year, it could just become a reality.

 
An equally fantastical situation involves a last minute Zero Dark Thirty resurgence. In the dark corners of the voters privacy, it just might sneak up and make off with a bounty from Mark Boal‘s screenplay to the even more likely win for Jessica Chastain to a potential snagging of Best Editing. Although it’s chances of winning are about as likely as that fabled Affleck write-in, it could still grab a bulk of awards by taking advantage of the thoroughly divided riff between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln.

While my prognosticating leads me to a conclusion that is much more divided, beware the sweep and the underdogs for their shocking glory is sure to ruin a number of balloters chances. When all is said and done though, expect the Hollywood-aggrandizing, director-nomination-less Argo to be laughing all the way to the bank.

I’ve been getting a lot of buzz from readers requesting an Oscar Prediction contest for my readership and since nothing is better than good ol’ fashion competition come place your wagers for the noche of February 24th. Duke it out amongst yourselves to call which way these coveted 24 slots will turn and become the Ultimate Oscar Predictor.

To make it all a little more interesting, I have a mystery prize for the winner (barring a ten-way tie)… and yes, the prize is a DVD. You have almost two weeks to make your get your ducks in order and place your bets so don’t cop out here. And try and get as many people in on this as possible- the more the merrier.

In addition to a prize, the winner will get a shout out on the site and will generally be recognized as uber cool by pretty much everyone.

I’ll have my predictions up the night of the 22nd after the final submission and we’ll let this all play out. Make sure to check out my live blog on Oscar night itself as I’ll be keeping tally of which contest submissions are looking golden and whose catching the snubs.

The Rules

• You must submit your predictions by Friday, February 22nd Saturday, February 23rd at Midnight.
• Only one submission per person.
• Only submissions placed via page comment (at the bottom of this page) will count. Do not post on the SmartFilm Facebook wall or send me an email or message. Your predictions are only valid if they’re in the right spot. 
• Vote for every category in order to win. While it’s all well and good to only care about the primary battlefields, if you only submit predictions for Best Performers and Pic/Director, you’ll miss out on all the other categories and will have a small shot at winning.

The Contenders

Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
 Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Michael Haneke “Amour”
Benh Zeitlin “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Ang Lee “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg “Lincoln”
David O. Russell “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman “Les Misérables”
Joaquin Phoenix “The Master”
Denzel Washington “Flight”

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence  “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva  “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts  “The Impossible“

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin “Argo”
Robert De Niro “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones  “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz “Django Unchained”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams “The Master”
Sally Field “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Animated Film
“Brave” Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
“Frankenweenie” Tim Burton
“ParaNorman” Sam Fell and Chris Butler
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits” Peter Lord
“Wreck-It Ralph” Rich Moore

Achievement in Cinematography
“Anna Karenina” Seamus McGarvey
“Django Unchained” Robert Richardson
“Life of Pi” Claudio Miranda
“Lincoln” Janusz Kaminski
“Skyfall” Roger Deakins

Achievement in Costume Design
“Anna Karenina” Jacqueline Durran
“Les Misérables” Paco Delgado
“Lincoln” Joanna Johnston
“Mirror Mirror” Eiko Ishioka
“Snow White and the Huntsman” Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary
“5 Broken Cameras”
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
“The Gatekeepers”
Nominees to be determined
“How to Survive a Plague”
Nominees to be determined
“The Invisible War”
Nominees to be determined
“Searching for Sugar Man”
Nominees to be determined

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Inocente”
Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
“Kings Point”
Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
“Mondays at Racine”
Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
“Open Heart”
Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
“Redemption”
Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

Achievement in Film Editing
“Argo” William Goldenberg
“Life of Pi” Tim Squyres
“Lincoln” Michael Kahn
“Silver Linings Playbook” Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
“Zero Dark Thirty” Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Best Foreign Language Film
“Amour” Austria
“Kon-Tiki” Norway
“No” Chile
“A Royal Affair” Denmark
“War Witch” Canada

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
“Hitchcock”
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
“Les Misérables”
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Original score
“Anna Karenina” Dario Marianelli
“Argo” Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi” Mychael Danna
“Lincoln” John Williams
“Skyfall” Thomas Newman

Original song
“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Achievement in Production Design
“Anna Karenina”
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
“Les Misérables”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
“Life of Pi”
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Lincoln”
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best Animated Short Film
“Adam and Dog” Minkyu Lee
“Fresh Guacamole” PES
“Head over Heels” Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
“Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”” David Silverman
“Paperman” John Kahrs

Best Live Action Short Film
“Asad” Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
“Buzkashi Boys” Sam French and Ariel Nasr
“Curfew” Shawn Christensen
“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)” Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
“Henry” Yan England

Achievement in Sound Editing
“Argo” Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
“Django Unchained” Wylie Stateman
“Life of Pi” Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
“Skyfall” Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
“Zero Dark Thirty” Paul N.J. Ottosson

Achievement in Sound Mixing
“Argo”
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
“Les Misérables”
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
“Life of Pi”
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
“Lincoln”
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
“Skyfall”
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Achievement in Visual Effects
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
“Life of Pi”
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
“Prometheus”
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Adapted Screenplay
“Argo” Screenplay by Chris Terrio
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
“Life of Pi” Screenplay by David Magee
“Lincoln” Screenplay by Tony Kushner
“Silver Linings Playbook” Screenplay by David O. Russell

Original Screenplay
“Amour” Written by Michael Haneke
“Django Unchained” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“Flight” Written by John Gatins
“Moonrise Kingdom” Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
“Zero Dark Thirty” Written by Mark Boal

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