As we gather up our chips, roll the dice and make a gamble for the Oscar night that is nearly upon us, I take a look at four potential narratives that may be the story of this year’s Oscars.

At this point in the game, there are up to four narratives that could be potentially written about this year’s Oscar ceremony, making the role of prognosticator particularly challenging this season. The likely scenario will entail a split between the major categories with awards going every which way. While an unexpected sweep from a pair of heavy contenders is unlikely, it is still entirely possible. Finally, a few underdogs may just creep up and take advantage of the hefty competition and secure themselves as 2013’s top dogs.

The most likely scenario is a split, where Argo takes a choice grab of major awards (Best Picture, Editing, Adapted Screenplay), Lincoln snags a few big ones (Director, Actor, Production Design) and Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook split the rest of the main fare with the an abundance of the technical categories heading Pi’s way and Silver Linings Playbook scooping up some acting cred with Robert DeNiro for Best Supporting Actor and Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress and potentially, however unlikely, even grabbing Adapted Screenplay away from Argo. All that’s left is Quentin Tarantino‘s Django Unchained which would pick up Original Screenplay and potentially that second Best Supporting Actor for Christoph Waltz.

This is the likely scenario but since it’s a year in flux, we have to consider alternative situations. We have to consider the upset. Now hear me out on this because it could go one of two ways: the Lincoln road or the Silver Linings route. Although Argo seems to have Best Picture on lock-down, Affleck‘s lack of a nomination is still troubling statistically since films just don’t win Best Pic without even having their director nominated. In fact, most years Best Director and Best Picture come nicely packaged together with a pair of wins. Although unlikely, this is still a possibility we could still see this year with either Lincoln or Silver Linings.

We know that Oscar-hoarding mastermind Harvey Weinstein is standing firmly behind Silver Linings Playbook and has been greasing the Academy’s wheel so if we hear David O’Russell‘s name called for the highest directorial honor, the big win for Silver Linings might just not be out of the question. Lincoln has made a similarly strong push and certainly appeals to the whole backwards-looking factions of the Academy so it wouldn’t be out of character for them to ignore the precursors and just hand it all over to Steven Spielberg and his well made biopic. While either of these situations wouldn’t quite classify as your out-and-out sweep, they certainly would represent a staggering victory for either film. Since both these two are Argo’s biggest contendors, don’t count out that this could be the way the cookie crumbles quite yet.

The final scenario is even less likely and involves Michael Haneke‘s Amour taking home the bulk of Oscar gold. Even if Amour loses Best Pic to Argo, it still has Best Foreign Language Film locked down and if it managed to also pull Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and perhaps even an upset by Emmanuelle Riva, be certain that Amour will be the hot talking point going forward. No-one ever see the small ones coming but it’s happened before, think Slumdog Millionaire, and with such a divided year, it could just become a reality.

 
An equally fantastical situation involves a last minute Zero Dark Thirty resurgence. In the dark corners of the voters privacy, it just might sneak up and make off with a bounty from Mark Boal‘s screenplay to the even more likely win for Jessica Chastain to a potential snagging of Best Editing. Although it’s chances of winning are about as likely as that fabled Affleck write-in, it could still grab a bulk of awards by taking advantage of the thoroughly divided riff between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln.

While my prognosticating leads me to a conclusion that is much more divided, beware the sweep and the underdogs for their shocking glory is sure to ruin a number of balloters chances. When all is said and done though, expect the Hollywood-aggrandizing, director-nomination-less Argo to be laughing all the way to the bank.