Who deserves to win doesn’t always line up with who does win so take a look at where the Oscars are gonna end up and where they actually should be heading.

(Note: This is not my final ballot, I still need to do some equivocating and fill in my dashes so expect that final submission tomorrow evening.)

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Argo

Argo has got the proverbial wing beneath it’s said and it’s outright hoarding of all the precursor awards are sure to lead to an Argonian victory speech next Sunday. With the DGAs, PGAs, BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice, SAGs and WGAs under its belt, it’s hard to imagine a world where Argo does not win Best Picture.

Who Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Although Django Unchained was technically my favorite of the year, I don’t think it should be the picture that gets Quentin Tarantino his first, and likely only, win. No, this year’s winner should be Silver Linings Playbook. Although detractors of the film attack it with labels of ‘levity’ and ‘rom-com’, it really isn’t either of those things to any degree. Silver Linings Playbook managed a miraculously real exploration of romance amid catastrophe with sensitive navigation. It’s a remarkably emotional film and to degrade it with the label of rom-com is akin to calling Argo a mindless actioner.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Ang Lee

This is definitely the trickiest category going this year. The only person with any real momentum here is Affleck and he’s ineligible for the win. While I want to say that Steven Spielberg is the safe bet, here is little to no empirical evidence that suggest that he is indeed the front runner. In fact, outside of a slew of nominations, Spielberg has received little fanfare on the accolades side for his turn behind the camera, critical acclaim notwithstanding. Plus, he’s a safe vote and we’ve yet to see if the Academy will try and be more forward-looking and less passe this time around. Ang Lee seems a likely mantle holder for front runner but that would probably be more of a legacy win than for representing Life of Pi as his finest work. Since Life of Pi is easily the biggest moneymaker worldwide, why not seem relevant and present him the prize. I’m going out on a limb here but I just can’t help but put Lee at number one.

Who Should Win: David O’Russell

 

Returning to my sentiments on Silver Linings Playbook, it was undeniably David O’Russell‘s tender hand that made the film work as effectively as it did. If handled with less sensitivity and deliberate execution, it easily could have fallen victim to the pitfalls of melodrama, a feat which he and his talented cast alone can take credit for. O’Russell has proved of late that he has a noxious ability to direct actors into award-winning roles so it’s about time for him to get his cred.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis

No-one will deny Daniel Day Lewis‘s craft and his uncanny transformative ability. He managed to continue his victory streak of excellent thesbianism and his portrayal of the 16th President of the United States will be sure to gain him his third, and record setting, win for Best Actor.

Who Should Win: Daniel Day Lewis

The reason DDL is so strong in this category is all due to the fact that he didn’t just bring a stoic icon to life, he did it in a deeply personal and curiously tender way, presenting a side of Lincoln no-one saw coming. Lewis’ master class in method acting allowed us to hang with the long deceased president for a few hours and he deserves to be presented with his third lil’ gold guy. The strongest contender in this category from where I’m standing is Joaquin Phoenix. Phoenix displayed an equally fine-tuned character on the other side of the human condition and played unhinged and animalistic in his mannerisms and gestures alike. It’s too bad that The Master wasn’t a finer film in which to showcase Phoenix’s acting prowess.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

This category isn’t a total lock but Jennifer Lawrence definitely is the front runner here. Although she hasn’t snagged all the precursors, which are usually a strong means of prediction, she is certainly still considered to be leading her category by most Oscar pundits. There is still a good chance that Jessica Chastain ends up with the win or a split vote between Lawrence and Chastain opens up an avenue for underdog Emmanuelle Riva to sneak in.

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Lawrence put on an admirably scatter-shot performance as Tiffany in Silver Linings Playbook, fluctuating between being guarded and psychotic, irrational and acute, sharp and girlish, always with shocking honesty. Her portrait felt real and truly fleshed out and genuine. For some, it would be the performance of their life but I expect Lawrence has more up her sleeve. Tiffany was not the cheap, surface caricature that she might have been, this was a well studied and meaningful performance and although Lawrence is young, she deserves the win here.

Best Support Actress

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway‘s literally breathtaking rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream” delivered with so much teary-eyed panache that it became the forefront of the Les Miserables marketing campaign. Every trailer was branded with this harrowing tune to the point that anyone who watches television or goes to the movies are sure to be familiar with the majority of it regardless of whether they’ve actually seen the film. Even those who missed it will be sure to recognize a closely shaven Hathway belting out in agony and that public presence alone is enough to run her to the forefront. There’s a reason the marketing blitz started and stopped with Hathaway, she was the uncontested highlight of Les Misand her cry-singing (or is it sing-crying?) will most certainly be winning her her first Oscar

Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway

As much as I’ve had my reservations about the ceaselessly perky Hathaway in the past, her dueling fare from the year has all but won me over. Her bit in Les Miserables was a shining beacon of hope in an otherwise tiresome film and proved her potent dramatic gravitas. On the opposite side of the spectrum, she nicely balanced out that intensity with an unforgettable turn as a sassy, no-BS Catwoman (actually Selina Kyle) in Christopher Nolan‘s final Batman outing, earning her the title of this year’s Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: ?

This year’s best supporting actor field is really anyone’s race, with the possible exception of Alan Arkin. You may as well flip a four sided coin and go with the result because a good argument could be made for any of these contenders. At different points of the year, I’ve had my money on Phillip Seymour Hoffman then Tommy Lee Jones then Robert DeNiro and finally Christoph Waltz. Now I’m scrambling to make a final call as this field is truly a toss up that even the finest of prognosticators will be sure to miss out on.

Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Well obviously I’m going with Waltz. I gave his performance in Django Unchaineda glowing reviewing when it came out and I stick wholeheartedly to it. Waltz may have won Best Supporting Actor just a few years back under the Tarantino flag and sporting similar diction and cadence but that doesn’t detract from his truly phenomenal performance here. Although there are notable similarities, the contrast in character really couldn’t be starker. His prior win was for a hypnotic villain who made your belly turn and your face cringe while a win here would be for a hero that you helplessly stood behind and cheered for the whole way along. Is that enough of a difference for the Academy though? We shall see if they can distinguish the different between capitalizing and selflessness, villainy and heroics.

Cinematography 

Who Will Win: Life of Pi

At this point, I’m essentially relegating all the technicals Life of Pi‘s way because of the overwhelming support for the film both critically and commercially. Basically I expect Pi to play out much like this year’s Inception in the sense that it’ll probably tie for the top number of wins, albeit those coming strictly from tech categories. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on the wrong end of an argument debating the deservedness of the Life of Pi win but it just wasn’t a film that engaged me on a level deeper than the visual plus DP Claudio Mirandareally doesn’t have the filmography beneath his belt to outright deserve a win.

Who Should Win: Roger Deakins

Roger Deakins has been responsible for some of the most breathtaking and lively cinematography this side of Hollywood and his painterly photography of Skyfall was undeniably inspired. His scenery, lighting, camera motion decisions and framing decisions make it the most visually stunning Bond we’ve seen yet. It’s rare that a cinematogrpaher stands out as much as Deakins did here especially within the context of a massive blockbuster. I’m not ready to commit to necessarily calling this his finest work (as he’s competing against himself there with No Country For Old Men, True Grit, Shawshank Redemption, The Big Lebowski and Jarhead) but it certainly stands amongst his finest. Deakins has been nominated ten times and still has never won. It’s about time.

Editing

Who Will Win: Argo

Historically, editing has always been a category that goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture and don’t expect that to change this year as it will more than likely be headed Argo‘s way. While this trend unfortunately takes the fun out of the category, it also leaves it ripe for a shocker like last year’s surprising victory for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Whether you applaud Mark Boal‘s script or the editor here is up to you but there’s no denying the feat that is condensing a nine year historical manhunt into a movie that runs under three hours. This was the chief achievement of Zero Dark Thirty. Though some knocked it for being dull, the sense of hyper realism was propelled by the editors cautious cutting choices. Every choice seems deliberate and substantial, a necessary path to our final understand of the character at the forefront.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Brave

This year’s Best Animated Feature race is more lively than normal with a host of viable contenders. While the odds are still out, films like Frankenweenie and Paranorman still stand a chance but more than likely will cancel each other out because of their similar subject material (reanimation) and medium (stop-motion). This will most likely propel Brave to the victory and this is really a shame. Pixar was on such a winning streak up until the credits rolled out on Toy Story 3 and since have seemed to go cold. Bravewas very derivative fare that fell into sentimentality and mindless plot points. Brand recognition however goes a long way and the fact that Pixar missed out last year more than likely means that they’ll be taking the win even after phoning it in. Plus, the mother-and-daughter-finally-understanding-each-other resolution is much more in line with Academy sensibility than the genre blenders that fill out the rest of the field.

Who Should Win: Wreck it Ralph 

Wreck it Ralph was a genuinely from-the-heart story laid out on a stunning and inventive visual canvas that managed to excite both nostalgia and wonder. Many people confused it for a Pixar film and with good reason, because it, like what Pixar used to represent, was actually great. Ralph should win to change the narrative and prove that the increasingly worthwhile Dreamworks Animation Studio may just have inherited the mantle from Pixar.

Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Life of Pi

Again, look at the Inception ticket to get a good read here. It took both Sound Editing and Mixing, Cinematography and Visual Effects, the likely route for Life of Pi minus sound mixing which will go to Les Miserables. There’s nothing to knock Ang Lee’s beautifully made Life of Pi for, it’s elegant use of 3D technology and dreamlike landscapes were most definitely the standouts of the film and I won’t be booing when it takes the win, which trust me, it will.

 Who Should Win: The Avengers

Say what you will about the Marvel mashup but there’s no denying the visual mastery taking place on screen in The Avengers. Maybe it’s just the inner geek in me speaking up but the final climax in Avengers was truly a one-of-a-kind spectacle. Sure, it’s eye candy but it was goddamn delicious. The fact that Marvel stipulated that final sequence before they were had a story is no surprise, it’s the breathtaking centerfold to their already massively scoped blockbuster and it delivered more geekgasms than the world could have ever expected.